Betting on the Horses

[djw180 6,843]

I've been keeping track of the results of horse races in the casino, since they updated it, and this is what I have found. I will update this as I get more data. I think there's enough to be sure of the main conclusion though. It has changed since they released this. The chances of winning by betting on horse one are not as good as they were originally, but you should stil be able to gurantee a profit if you know when not to bet or just make a small bet.

Brief explanation of how R* have set this up.

• 6 horses in the race
• Horse 1 and Horse 2 always have odds between evens and 5:1
  • most of the time Horse 1 is the favourite, sometimes they have the same odds
• Horses 3,4,5, & 6 always have odds of at least 6:1

 

Main conclusion: If horse1 is evens and ALL other horses have greater odds the chance of horse 1 winning is 0.61, based on 125 races.

 

Other situations

• horse1 and horse2 have the same odds, chance of horse1 winning is 0.44, based on 50 races
• horse1 is 2:1, ALL others 3:1 or longer odds, chance of horse 1 winning is 0.52, based on 58 races
  • so that is definitley worth betting on horse1, at odds of 2:1 if it wins more than 1 in 3 races you make profit
• horse1 is longer odds than 2:1. all others longer odds than horse 1, chance of horse 1 winning is 0.35, based on 65 races
• I have not bothered trying to calculate the chances of horses at the longer odds winning.

 

 

So if you only place large bets on horse 1 when it is the lone favourite, i.e. all other horses, including horse2, have longer odds, then you should make a profit..

 

I have got more data on when horse1 and horse2 are same odds, but I would say (and I do similar things to this in my job) still not enough to be sure of anything. It's looks like both horses have the same the chance of winning, but I can't rule out that horse 1 might be slightly more likely to win.

 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2019 by djw180

[Sinister 2,578]

The member over at GTAF that is an insider has said that R* has not changed a single thing about horse racing since it was launched. The RNG system used by the game is said to be very complex and every single time you log onto the game your "luck" changes. They said if your luck is bad, restart the game.

General consensus is to continue betting on the number 1 because it still wins the most. Best chances are when number 2 is 5/1 and number 1 is anything lower. Players are still making millions from Inside Track.

That said, I love posts like these. Good to see players taking to time to track things and figure out the odds

[Fido_le_muet 5,197]

I kept track of results for 50 races but couldn't come to any clear conclusion other than Horse 1 winning more than 50% of races. 

I collected data over 2 days and at least 3 console restarts. 

I kinda agree that your luck seems to change a bit after you restart the game. 

I spend about 1 hour a day betting on horse and so far I have made more than a million. Always betting on horse 1. He wins more than half the races. 

Some sessions are better than others though. I won 400k and 500k in 45 minutes but sometimes I only won 100k in the same time frame. Always making a profit though. Seems consistent with the luck changing everytime you restart the game. 

I stopped collectiong data because it was taking too long (kept track of horses names, odds and colors lol).

My strategy so far : always bet on horse 1, except if it's evens. I back out and come back to reset the odds. I haven't had much luck when horse 1 and 2 have the same odds. I always bet the maximum : 10000 chips. I never buy chips. Only use what I win from Ms Baker missions. I use a very small percentage of my gains to play Diamond Miner slots (about 20-25k chips after every Inside Track session). Really want to win the 2.5 millions  

Horse 1 often wins when the gap between #1 and #2 is highest (ie Horse 1 is 2/1 and horse 2 is 5/1).

But really, always betting on Horse 1 is guaranteed profit. I have no idea if this changed since the release of the casino DLC as I started keeping track after that. 

Also, it's very frustrating to see horse 4, 5 or 6 win  

[Sinister 2,578]

Be careful with backing out to reset the horses/odds. One thing R* did implement is a system to track macros. Go in and out too quickly/much and you will be temporarily banned from betting.

[Sinister 2,578]

https://gtaforums.com/topic/933493-have-the-odds-changed-or-is-it-just-bad-luck/

[DavidCore89 7,402]

Interesting.

Have had a few losing streaks, still up overall.

I just bet max on horse 1 regardless of odds. Don't do the backing out thing. 

[zztop911 1,609]

More illustrious stupid R* bullshit!

Yesterday with the tunables, R*  came up with new BS! If you win three times in a row, you will be kicked to story mode automatically!

[djw180 6,843]

21 minutes ago, zztop911 said:

More illustrious stupid R* bullshit!

Yesterday with the tunables, R*  came up with new BS! If you win three times in a row, you will be kicked to story mode automatically!

I haven't noticed that, but I can't say for sure I have won 3 in a row. I'll keep a check next time I do some betting.

 

[Fido_le_muet 5,197]

Inside Track getting less and less interesting everyday. Nowadays I'm happy if I make 100k.

[zztop911 1,609]

6 hours ago, djw180 said:

I haven't noticed that, but I can't say for sure I have won 3 in a row. I'll keep a check next time I do some betting.

 

I got it last night with main and got it this morning with 2nd character.

[Sinister 2,578]

@zztop911 is correct. In an effort to combat cheating on PC R* has changed the system.

If you win 3 times with Horses that have different odds you will most likely be kicked out of the game. If you always bet on a horse with the same odds you shouldn’t be kicked. Of course doing that requires backing out to change odds and that can get you kicked from betting for a bit. 

If you have a bet on the main event you are not able to do single events until that race is over. 

Edited August 18, 2019 by SINISTER120

[djw180 6,843]

Updated the first post. More definite conclusions based on actual results. But just confirming what we all know already, betting on horse 1 every time makes you money in the long run. I think you will get slightly more if you don't put a big bet on or back out when horse2 is same odds. But that does not happen often, so it doesn't make that much difference and there still isn't enough data for me to sure whether horse1 still has more chance of winning than horse2 in that situation.

One thing to bear in mind is of course how much you win for given odds.

• If horse 1 is evens then you make a profit so long as it wins more than half the races. Currently my data says it wins 61% of the time.
• if horse 1 is 2:1 then you make a profit so long as wins more than 1/3 of the races. Currently my data says it wins 45% of them time.
• if horse 1 is 3:1 or longer (I don't keep track of all other odds seperately) then you make a profit so long as it wins more than 1/4 of the races. Currently my data says it wins 35% of the time.

The above are based on 144, 89 and 65 races respectively. I would say that is enough data to be sure.

Edited August 19, 2019 by djw180

[zztop911 1,609]

It doesn't even have to be 3 times in a row!  I won two times on 1 horse with two losses after the second win in a row and when 1 horse won again, I was kicked to story..

I bet I didn't get the winnings either!

 

Max bet on all bets.

Edited August 19, 2019 by zztop911

[djw180 6,843]

I've never been kicked and I have now definitely won 3 in a row, max amount on horse 1. But I don't win 3 in a row that often.

Could the lobby type make a difference? I'm usually in solo, crew or invite-only.

[zztop911 1,609]

Just now, djw180 said:

I've never been kicked and I have now definitely won 3 in a row, max amount on horse 1. But I don't win 3 in a row that often.

Could the lobby type make a difference? I'm usually in solo, crew or invite-only.

Max bet is required or the odds being the same.

 

[djw180 6,843]

1 hour ago, zztop911 said:

Max bet is required or the odds being the same.

 

OK, that explains it. I have not won 3 in a row with same odds.

Edited August 19, 2019 by djw180

[zztop911 1,609]

24 minutes ago, djw180 said:

OK, that explains it. I have not won 3 in a row with same odds.

Just got kicked again, 3rd time win on #1 horse, but different odds and a couple losses between wins, but only two in a row...........the last two.

Atleast I got my winnings.

 

[zztop911 1,609]

The odds don't matter, in a row doesn't matter, the only thing that matters is three wins on the same horse. I even broke it up by buying decorations.

[djw180 6,843]

10 hours ago, zztop911 said:

The odds don't matter, in a row doesn't matter, the only thing that matters is three wins on the same horse. I even broke it up by buying decorations.

Well then this is not happening to me. I have won 3 times in a row, max bet on horse1 each time, not been kicked. I'm failry sure, but not 100%, I have even won 3 times on the same named horse (as horse 1) without being kicked.

Has anyone reported this a bug? If it happened to me that is what I would assume. I can understand they might have something in place to stop people making too much money, but I would have thought that would take a lot of sucessive big wins to trigger it, not just a couple.

[zztop911 1,609]

People on GTA forums are reporting the same as me.

Scroll half way down...................  https://gtaforums.com/topic/933094-testing-different-inside-track-horse-racing-betting-strategies/page/8/#comments